Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 788.028295 890.751934 1005.826765 1145.061925 1309.996022 1500.416470 1738.749982
2025-02-09 645.400587 781.456707 948.264584 1170.970603 1465.394092 1848.452896 2396.780669
2025-02-16 559.210644 705.438285 894.804996 1163.756902 1545.712618 2084.718672 2933.959600
2025-02-23 510.767801 666.745450 878.295021 1195.273387 1675.053182 2404.589828 3664.448126
2025-03-02 472.244509 634.278042 862.764517 1221.253012 1795.211765 2729.128859 4487.505929
2025-03-09 434.642593 597.613552 834.964420 1222.130752 1872.783479 2996.943764 5287.973692
2025-03-16 398.844794 559.179345 799.093484 1203.603810 1912.546186 3204.288856 6034.622612
2025-03-23 376.706842 538.564748 787.469437 1221.609670 2016.519308 3549.334618 7186.427418
2025-03-30 346.253311 502.173988 746.834961 1184.523803 2012.998759 3682.201239 7902.818332
2025-04-06 320.439886 470.821377 711.172580 1151.307470 2010.645046 3815.685965 8671.304878
2025-04-13 296.608495 440.743340 674.828037 1112.364874 1990.484654 3905.654794 9361.163927
2025-04-20 288.424547 435.382585 679.479338 1149.197464 2129.997880 4390.270016 11409.880101
2025-04-27 277.318673 425.094785 676.025349 1173.047191 2253.181496 4887.956509 13863.262585
2025-05-04 266.429344 414.433756 671.133427 1194.060134 2376.237980 5430.331654 16894.417282
2025-05-11 252.841204 397.951553 653.970509 1187.587319 2433.960687 5813.903645 19627.716143
2025-05-18 245.532768 391.862122 655.330088 1219.780353 2591.665764 6543.525396 24576.188338
2025-05-25 238.081491 384.890222 654.262027 1246.473060 2741.545140 7310.151298 30643.857501
2025-06-01 228.251471 372.860000 642.301125 1247.369813 2823.961153 7889.760580 36485.439813
2025-06-08 217.064223 357.576015 622.661185 1228.352786 2848.315097 8278.035375 41727.084436
2025-06-15 210.636397 350.733830 619.291854 1246.835484 2983.633256 9142.800883 51996.181208
2025-06-22 199.093798 333.510963 593.499696 1208.769505 2945.193894 9308.384450 56962.081126
2025-06-29 188.771512 318.060367 570.310658 1174.682724 2913.371491 9496.074270 62652.294036
2025-07-06 178.618314 302.416218 545.715824 1134.728754 2856.983058 9562.367415 67430.119801